The total number of breast cancer incident cases in the nine major markets (9MM) — the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, urban China and Brazil — is expected to increase by 44% over the next decade, from 0.90 million in 2012 to 1.29 million by 2022.
The latest report states that the number of five-year prevalent cases will also grow by 44%, climbing from 3.7 million in 2012 to 5.39 million by 2022. Out of the 9MM, the US and urban China had the highest number of five-year prevalent cases in 2012, with 1.15 million and 898,406 cases, respectively.
Samantha Lee, Epidemiologist, says: “The forecast growth in breast cancer incidence is partly due to rising cases of obesity, growing detection through screening programs, and changes in reproductive patterns and the use of postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy.”
According to the World Health Organization, increased breast cancer survival has contributed greatly to the prevalence of the disease, and there is a large amount of evidence showing that breast cancer mammographic screening is effective in reducing the disease mortality by at least 20% in women aged 50 years and older.
Lee says: “Prevention measures taken to improve breast cancer survival in parts of the world where organized nationwide mammography screening has only been made available in recent years, such as Brazil and China, will boost survival rates and impact the disease incidence and prevalence in those countries.”
Nonetheless, epidemiologists expect the impact of screening in these markets to be limited in the short term. This is due to the lack of sufficient resources and infrastructure needed to support the downstream healthcare needs associated with screening, such as additional diagnostic tests and treatment.
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