Real GDP growth will be 4.5% in 2014 and 2015, a downwards revision from our previous forecast of 5.2%. Falling diamond exports, diminishing base effects and ongoing power issues will constrain real GDP growth. Botswana will post a diminishing budget surplus amid rising spending and slowing revenue growth. We forecast a surplus equivalent to 0.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2014/15, falling to 0.1% of GDP in 2016/17. Monetary policy in Botswana will remain accommodative through the close of 2014 and into 2015.
Inflation is contained and will continue to be so in the coming months thanks to the pula’s appreciation against the rand and slowing domestic economic growth. We predict that Botswana’s current account surplus will narrow from 7.0% in 2014 to 5.9% in 2015. Having declined in 2014 we forecast that both goods imports and exports will return to growth in 2015.
Political tensions are heightening in Botswana ahead of general elections, scheduled for October 24. Although we expect the incumbent Botswana Democratic Party to win, the contest is likely to be closer than in previous votes. There is also increasing risk of electoral violence.
The Botswana Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Botswana and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of The Botswana’s economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters.
- Forecast the pace and stability of The Botswana’s economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise The Botswana’s country risks against regional peers using Publisher’s country comparative Risk Ratings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Botswana, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
- The Botswana Business Forecast Report by Publisher includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.
How will the Botswanan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
Publisher provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Botswana through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Botswana Business Forecast Report features Publisher’s forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and Publisher’s evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Full 10-year forecasts with data – for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
Publisher’s comprehensive Risk Ratings system – rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity – real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments – trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy – interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy – currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy – macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment – approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt – debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
- Global Assumptions – forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
- Rely upon Publisher’s 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Botswana and underlying assumptions – we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of Publisher’s comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Botswana, sourced and fully maintained by Publisher from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company’s business prospects, from Publisher’s team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in The Botswana over the next 5-years?
Publisher’s The Botswana country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the Botswanan Market – Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Botswana.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment – Publisher’s Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Botswana’s risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making Publisher assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Benchmark The Botswana’s risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company’s current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through Publisher’s specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
- Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis – Business environment Risk Ratings for The Botswana, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.
- Country Competitiveness – Competitiveness of The Botswana’s business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.
Business Environment Contents
- Domestic Environment – Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
- Foreign Direct Investment – Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
- Foreign Trade – Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.
Assess your company’s evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using Publisher’s in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
Understand your market’s comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using Publisher’s proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.
Spanning over 33 pages, “Botswana Business Forecast Report Q1 2015” report covering the Executive Summary, Political Outlook, Long-Term Political Outlook, Economic Outlook, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Balance Of Payments, Exchange Rate Policy, 10-Year Forecast, Operational Risk.
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